User Review( votes)
great news is that over the long run, statistically speaking, if you only ever backed one side of every arb you will still come out at a profit. Since arbing specifically uses odds which give a greater than 100% return on investment, either one or both bets have odds which are greater than the statistical chance of that outcome winning. If you are indiscriminant in your betting (50-50 selection of favorite or underdog) then your long term return would average out at whatever your average arbitrage percentage was. Statistically, stuffing every arb is still winning. However, we don’t practice this because like all ‘statistically correct’ gambling systems, a long losing streak will wipe our bank balance out and we won’t be able to place the bets which are meant to win and bring us back into profit. And so, here are the steps which we need to take in order to avoid the risk associated with betting on arbs.
Bet Like with LikeLearn what rules each bookmaker uses with any sport you are going to bet on. When you have an arb between two bookmakers, make sure both bookmakers use the same rules and there will be no potential loss.
Identify potentially bad oddsUltimately the call of ‘Palpable or human error’ is up to the bookmaker, and there is nothing gamblers, or arbers, can do to change that. However, we can follow a few simple rules for identifying odds which might be errors. Any arb which is 5% or over should arouse an instant suspicion and cause you to look very closely at the odds involved. The most common form of error is reversed odds, where the odds or handicapping of the favorite and underdog have been swapped. Check for this. Are the odds for either of the bookmakers more than 25% higher than odds offered by other books on the same event? It is likely an error if they are. Lastly, do the two books agree on whether the favorite is obvious or not? An obvious favorite/underdog is indicated by odds under 1.85 and over 2.25 respectively. If one book offers odds of 1.99 and the other odds of 2.55, then one book is saying that the game is close (1.99), while the other is saying that the outcome is obvious (2.55 will ‘clearly’ lose). Only trust arbs where both sets of odds are within the 1.85 and 2.25 range, or both odds are outside of the 1.85 and 2.25 range. That being said, be wary of odds that are identical… 2.30 vs 2.30. It is likely that one bookmaker, in that instance, has reversed their odds. That is, they have most likely accidentally given the home team the away teams odds and vice versa.
- Take it slow
- Paper Trade
- Trade with small bets
- Triple check the arb isn’t an obvious error (as described above).
- Triple check the odds you have are for the correct bets (1×2? +0.5? -0.5? +0.25? over or under? half time or full time?).
- Triple check when the game will be played. Will you be seeing your profits this month?
- Triple check you have the right game in the right league with the right teams.
- Triple check that the odds at the bookmaker are the odds reported by your alert service.
- If they aren’t, triple check any re-calculations you make if it is still an arb.
- Triple check your bets. Have you placed the right amount in order to maximise the arb?