TORONTO BLUE JAYS vs TAMPA BAY RAYS Tip and PreviewbaseballusaUSA MLB Baseball16th May 2012 at 1:07

Tipster Tip Details Result
tipster Mike McClain
Mike McClain

Best Odds: 1.98 at 5 dimes

Stake: 3 % bankroll (60 units)   

No Bet Under: 1.88   

Waiting for result
Game Preview:
Price has been more then sufficient against the Blue Birds winning 8 of 10, 3 ER or less in 9 of those games. Since 2011 Price has gone 42 innings, 2. 36 ERA and 1. 02 WHIP verse Toronto. The last Left handed line up Toronto fielded has 125 plate appearances vs Price, . 232 AVG, 3. 18 K/BB ratio. If they start Lind or Thames, as both have started verse lefties this year, 39 plate appearances for a . 179 AVG. Price has sabarmetric ERA’s 3. 99 tERA, 3. 51 SIERRA, and 3. 34 xFIP. All are right in line with career bests. His velocity is unchanged from last year, he’s added a cutter, K/BB, HR/9, every thing looks solid. Price has been a horse his whole career and that won’t change this year.

Opposing Price will be Henderson Alvarez. I’m a fan of Alvarez, even more so after watching Bautista punch him in the baby makers at the end of a game a couple weeks ago (he was joking around). He was a buy earlier this season but now he’s a sell. Alvarez has one of the most unusual stat lines in baseball. He’s a pure contact pitcher, he wants to induce contact and have his defense generate outs. The problem with that is it can only get you so far. Once a ball goes in play it can be a single, HR, Error, base runner advancing. It can be any number of things that leads to offensive productivity. Strikeouts matter in rating a pitcher because it virtually removes anything positive that can happen offensively, it’s a empty out.

Alvarez has a K/9 at 2. 61, lowest in baseball amongst qualifying starters. Virtually every out he records is with a ball in play. The league average BABIP this year is . 288, including his entire minor league career since 2008 his BABIP has never been below . 280. The league average LOB% is 72. 9%, including his entire minor league career since 2008 his LOB% has never been below 78%. This year his BABIP is . 212 and his LOB% is 88. 7%. He’s not a bad pitcher, but he’s also been a major beneficiary of luck. It’s not a matter of can he sustain these numbers as they’re unsustainable. More a matter of when will the regression take place? It’s a great spot to plan for it with Price protecting us on the other side.

Both BP’s are bad, statistically Toronto’s is a little worse off, but close. Both starters have potential to go deep so hard to award a BP advantage to either side. Rays are slightly better on defense, with another slight bump for Maddens defensive creativity. Rays have the edge on the bases ranking 8th to Toronto’s 16th, not to mention having a lefty guarding first. In terms of wOBA batting, offenses are very comparable. Rays are 8-3 the last 11 verse Toronto, 6-2 the last 8 at the Rogers Centre. I expect the good fortune will continue Tuesday.

Play on Tampa Bay -102 ML
Pitchers Must Start
Price verse Alvarez

Tip published on the 15th May 2012 at 6:23