Suban Parnis’s latest news
Review of July and preview for August
I hate writing this because it´s almost all negative. We obviously had the worst run in a really really long time. Overall it was a weird month of tennis. It´s apparent when you check out the results of pretty much all the other tennis tipsters. I did make mistakes again, no doubt about it and I fkn hate it.
The month started off by Del Potro losing to Pouille from a very dominant position and Bautista-Agut losing 3-0 to the joke of the tour, Tomic. Then Kuznetsova managed to fuck up our +7 game handicap after serving for the first set and 5-4. Same shit happened with Nicolas Kicker with a +7 game handicap after he actually won the first set! Rajeev Ram against Dudi Sela was my first mistake of the month. Having watched the whole match it was definately not like I expected it to be. The numbers could have been even worse. Overestimating Facundo Bagnis against a big name like Verdasco was my second clear mistake, luckily the bet was small. Overestimating Taylor Fritz against A. Zverev was another mistake but the bet was small. Both Groth and M. Zverev managed to lose in straight sets when we had a match win and set handicap for both. I would make those bets again. The biggest surprise for me was how soft Steve Johnson was against Karlovic. Losing 6-4 6-4.. He had clearly had the upper hand in their previous meetings, having seen them all. The last two losing bets of the month were 100 unit bets. Cilic and Raonic. Raonic I would take again every time (Monfils played the best match in years and if that is the case then I will happily lose). Cilic wasn´t up to the task like I expected him to be and that was also a mistake, there was no value in betting on him even though Karlovic had a long match streak and was clearly tired before.
Some of the losses could have been prevented but there was no way to avoid having a minus month, simple as that. These come once or twice a year and that´s it.
What is extremely important to understand is that we had a very shitty month, it doesn´t get much worse than this. Why didn´t we lose something like 1000-2000 units? Because it´s the core of our strategy. We don´t have months like that. We don´t have huge swings. This is avoiding unwanted variance at it´s best.
I personally lost tens of thousands in July. And sure, it was frustrating but all I have to do is look at the big picture and it´s no longer frustrating. I know exactly what I´m doing and with the right bankroll management there are never any worries. Literally. That is all it comes down to, bankroll management. Now that our bankrolls went down a little, we will just bet a fraction smaller bets this month unless of course you want to deposit more on top.
What do we have in August? The Olympics obviously will be getting the most attention. Outisde of the Olympics there is quite a lot going on. We will have three 250 tournaments, the Cincinnati Masters 1000 and the US Open will start in the end of the month. Of course challenger level tournaments are running all the time too.
What better motivation to put in even more hours watching the matches and analyzing than coming from a big losing month? I can not wait to get back on track and work my ass off.
All the best,
Review of June and preview for July
Another decent month behind us but again, could have been better. I made a couple of clear mistakes and without those we would have been around the 500 unit mark.
Clearest mistakes were Harrison who is unbelievably unstable, Herbert game handicap against Kohlschreiber, Kvitova in the pre Wimbledon tournament and Chardy (far too inconsistent for a bet like this) set handicap against Johnson.
The biggest losing bet we had in June was Kohlscreiber with a 100 unit bet in Wimbledon against Herbert but I would take that bet again any day, no regrets on that one or any of the other losing bets.
Wimbledon is still running and we just saw the biggest surprise, Djokovic losing to Querrey. Gladly we weren´t a part of it. Wimbledon will definately offer us good bets till the end and for the rest of July we will have tournaments on all three surfaces which will offer us a bunch of opportunities.
Let´s avoid those stupid mistakes in July and make the most of it! Come on!!
Review of May and preview for June
A decent month behind us, still not quite where I want to be though. We got incrediably unlucky in a few matches. The biggest of them being our first bet of the month, Dimitrov against Schwartzman in the final in Istanbul. Dimitrov leading by a good margin and messing things up from a situation where his opponent had live odds of 100.. So that will basically happen once out of a hundred times. I would make that bet again every time.
When it comes to mistakes, Gabashvili was clearly one of them against Istomin. Another clear mistake was Chirico Louisa against Cibulkova in Madrid, the 5.5 game handicap was way too small given the occasion. The right bet would have been to bet on Cibulkova winning.
Pablo Cuevas lots us some money against Mahut with the odds of 1.14 but I would make that bet again every time. Raonic set handicap against Kyrgios was a mistake, too small margins between those two.. But Raonic against Ramos-Vinolas I would take again every time even though he lost 3-0 and Ramos-Vinolas played his best match in years.
Really looking forward to starting the grass season now. There is lots of value in it every season because players struggle adjusting to the surface and there are specialist and some who absolutely suck on grass and some who are ok on it but simply don´t like to play on it. Monfils being the best example of those, he hates playing on grass. We will most likely be betting a bit more on the ladies than usual this month, the grass season presents more opportunities with them.
Let´s go over 500 units of profit this month, shall we?
Enjoy the summer