John Sills’s latest news
Weekly Update - 17th February
It’s been a busy old week with 25 selections since last Monday (11th). From the 25, we’ve had one non-runner, nine profitable selections, six runners-up (2nd), one third-placed finisher (3rd), eight unplaced runners and a Tom Queally-sized headache, more on that later!!. Week In Numbers! 24 SELECTIONS 9 PROFITABLE SELECTIONS 6 RUNNERS-UP 1 THIRD-PLACED SELECTION 8 UNPLACED SELECTIONS Given the slow start to the month, it’s been a far more positive week, and things are looking far more ‘green’. I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t a little frustrating that we had another six selections this week finish in second spot, taking the total number of runners-up since the 4th February to 14. I like stats, so here goes!. Since the 4th, we’ve made 42 selections (excluding two non-runners), resulting in 11 winners, 14 runners-up, and 17 un-placed runners, which equates to 59.52% of our selections finishing in the first-two, with just 40.47% of our runners finishing un-placed. What could have been eh? - Nevertheless, I do take comfort that a large percentage of our selections are running very well, and use Sunday as an example when seconds can easily become winners, with four of our five selections resulting in profit (three winners, one each-way bet). Onwards and upwards, as we look to post a fifth straight profitable month at BetAdvisor, with a few identified and shortlisted horses entered to run in the coming week. Tom Queally! Where to begin?. I don’t want this to come across as ‘sour grapes’ or ‘talking from my pocket’, as I’ve never been a huge fan of Tom, but the ride given to Coillte Callin at Wolverhampton on Monday was easily the worst I’ve seen in a very long time, and doubt I’d see such like in some time. While I accept the horses running style, and expected the filly to be held-up, I didn’t expect Tom to be taking a pull when the eventual winner (Vastly) was kicking for home and had 10-15 lengths to make up before turning into the straight. Tom clearly didn’t want to take Coillte Cailin on the outside of runners as to not lose ground, but on occasions, drastic measures are required when your spotting the leader 10-15 lengths turning in. Despite the poor ride given to her, Coillte Cailin was only beaten a neck which faltered her slightly as the winner wasn’t exactly all out towards the line, but given the way she finished, there’s no doubt in my mind that she SHOULD have won today, and I’d place a substantial bet on Coillte Cailin comfortably proving the better of the two in the long-term if anyone is willing to lay the bet?. Right, now that’s out of the way, until next week (where I’ll be looking forward to Cheltenham), I bid you farewell. Please do get in touch if you have any questions or would like to give some feedback!!. Best Wishes John!!
Weekly Update - 11th February
Apologies that I’m a day late with this week’s update, but followers of my selections will know it’s been a busy few days. This week’s update is a little bit more positive following Saturday’s news bulletin (Recent Form - see below). Following a dreadful week, we’ve turned things around and are BACK IN PROFIT, with three of our four selections on Monday obliging, and we’ve had two 8/1, 5/1 and even-money winners in the past nine selections. We went through a run where we were finding one too good (as detailed in the recent form post), and our profits dropped off considerably. Despite remaining confident that we would recover from our recent blip, I didn’t think we would do so in such fashion, but it’s great to be back in the green so quickly, as we look to maintain our 100% record of making a monthly profit (5/5 so far). We will keep doing what we’ve been doing in the past few months, and look forward to posting more profits in February. Grand National 2014 Weights. The weights for this year’s Grand National were announced today, in which, as expected, Paul Nicholls’ veteran chaser, Tidal Bay tops them. By no means is the Grand National a betting race for me, let alone an ante-post one, but having had a glance at the weights, The Rainbow Hunter stands out for the Kim Bailey yard, carrying only 10st 7lb. He’s around a 40/1 chance with the bookmakers for those interested!!. All the best. John!!
Prior to Monday’s weekly update, I wanted to address the current form of the selections, as it’s been a very rough week. Since Tuesday, 17 selections have been made with just the one winner. Of the 16 other selections, eight (50%) have finished second, while we’ve beaten the odds on 13 of the 16 picks (81.25%). Result figures of the 17 selections since Tuesday - UU222UUU2UU222U12 Full details below: Tuesday 4th U - 13.50 Market Rasen - Lilly’s Legend 10/3 U - 15.00 Lingfield - Mossgo 9/2 2ND - 16.30 Lingfield - Frederic Chopin (Put up at 5/2 - 7/4 SP) Wednesday 5th 2ND - 13.45 Down Royal - Katnap (Put up at 6/5, 4/5 SP) 2ND - 14.50 Down Royal - Leavethelighton (Put up at 6/5, 1/1 SP) U - 15.55 Down Royal - Honey Bach (Put up at 11/2, 10/3 SP) U - 17.25 Down Royal - On Fiddlers Green (Put up at 5/1, 5/2 SP) Thursday 6th U - 13.10 Huntingdon - Genstone Trail (Put up at 9/2, 10/3 SP) 2ND - 17.30 Wolverhampton - Arlecchino (Put up at 7/2, 15/8 SP) U - 20.00 Wolverhampton - Copper Dock 8/1 Friday 7th U - 14.30 Kempton - Nozic (Put up at 7/1, 13/2 SP) Saturday 8th 2ND - 13.45 Naas - Byerley Babe (Put up at 15/8, 7/4 SP) 2ND - 15.30 Naas - Abbey Lane (Put up at 2/1, 9/10 SP) 2ND - 16.35 Naas - Milsean (Put up at 13/8, 5/6 SP) U - 16.40 Newbury - Thomas Brown (Put up at 2/1, 5/4 SP) W - 16.55 Warwick - Royal Player 11/4 2ND - 20.20 Wolverhampton - Rose Kazan (Put up at 11/4, 2/1 SP) No getting away from it, it’s been a hugely frustrating week, and it’ll be a big task to recover the month of February, but as though it doesn’t seem that way now, I’m still confident we will do so. Runs like this happen, but the stats above give me confidence that we’re doing the right things, picking the right selections, beating the price on 13 of the 16 losing selections, in which eight finished in the runners-up spot. A further update will be posted on Monday, in which I hope we have made some progress, with some positive selections short-listed for Sunday. Best Wishes John!