Lucas Liebart’s latest news
Analysis of the months of august and september
2 months more, and I have the feeling of having progressed in my management of bets, and in my way of choosing them. I understood that I had to analyze more in advance to obtain better value. That's why I now publish a lot more bets from 1 to 3 days before the games. This choice is also important because it leaves more time to follow my bets, the odds varying little before the last day. From an accounting point of view I am still in my objective, the 5000 units were reached at the end of September despite a difficult month, but quite well managed I think. My next goal is to reach 7500 units from Christmas (then I would take a 2 week break for the holidays). As I said in my previous analysis, I will now adhere to a more restricted list of bookmakers. I will stop publishing bets on SBObet, Pinnacle, Betvictor, William Hill and 5dimes. My results on these books are clearly less good and I make this choice in order to increase my yeld and facilitate the tracking of my bets. The following bookmakers will remain : Marathonbet (and 1xbet which almost always have the same rating), Bwin, Unibet and bet365. Concerning the different championship, the only trend that emerges is that I am less good on the big championships which makes sense because they are better rated. No change on that side then. If you have any remarks, don't hesitate to contact me, there are surely things to improve again.
Analysis of the months of June and July
Many things to say and lessons to learn from these 2 months. My first observation is that I have once again lacked regularity with a massive draw dawn on this month of June. After a fantastic month of May, it was predictable that the month of June was less good with a sort of balance, but I am pretty disappointed that I didn't succeed in limiting this. Yet this was an important objective. As for the month of July and the beginning of August, a certain regularity in the results finally seems to emerge, but this remains to be confirmed over several consecutive months ... Finally, this is with a great satisfaction that I managed to reach my target of 4000 units for the beginning of August. I will soon reach the 1000 bets, which now represents a fairly large sample. I will still wait a little more, and let the European championships start (until the end of September), before making some important adjustments. I will be able to take into account important statistics that are now fairly reliable and will improve my performance. Here are the points that will be modified towards the end of September: - So far I haven't set a limit for Bookmaker. I have posted bets on many of them, and I am aware that this makes my bets not always easy to follow. Looking at my statistics according to the bookmakers, there are clear trends that emerge. I wish to be able to choose a small group of maximum 4 Bookmakers by the end of September. All of my bets will then be taken on these bookmakers. - I also find that I am more comfortable on certain championships. I will gradually eliminate the championships in which my results are bad, in order to specialize in some championships. - As for the average value of the odds, I don't want to change the line. An average of 1.75 odd seems reasonable enough. Finally I set myself as the next goal to reach the 5000 units by the end of September, and especially not to relapse. The regularity should be the guideline of these next 2 months, and the results must be in the continuity of this month of July!
Analysis of my firsts 3 mounths
After this 3 first months of betting, a first assessment is necessary.
During these 3 months I changed my technique of analysis, after the bad run of april.
with hindsight, I think I was lucky on my first month. My statistics seem to be clearly above reality.
At that time I gave too much importance to the result of the match, and I didn't focus enough on the precise value of the odds. I was searching the sure bet, even if I took a low odd.
It's a big mistake that cost me this catastrophic April mounth. I was logically punished.
Then, I focused on the value of the odds, I looked for the big mistakes of the bookmakers, adding the same analysis technique that I used previously to confirm my choices. I think this is a good method, but it needs to be improved.
After these 3 months here are the observations that I make:
- I changed my approach and my analysis, which was necessary to move forward. I still have to improve my technique despite the very good current pass.
- I didn't manage to be regular, with a huge drawdown. I have to work on my regularity to limit this kind of bad run, that's my main objective.
- In spite of this bad month of April, I am close to my objectives of 1000 units per month.
With the end of most major championships in europe during the next 2 months, I will be forced to take less bets.
I will concentrate on the Scandinavian and Asian leagues, as well as on some South American matches.
My goal is to reach the 4000 units for the beginning of August. It will be hard but if I work and improve, I will.