Danny Laso’s latest news
2017/18 Season Review
My fourth season came to an end. So it's time to make my basketball season review. This season (2017/08/01 - 2018/06/30) main numbers: earned +4438 profit; 5,75% ROI; gave 1460 tips; my odds average 2,54 and 44,11% win rate. If we comparison all 4 seasons, this one is "average" season (+2254 first season/6 months, +2706 second season/10 months, +6385 third season/11 months, +4438 fourth season/11 months). However, I must divide this season into two parts: 1) 2017/08/01 - 2017/12/31 earned +4895 profit, 11,41% ROI and 735 tips; 2) 2018/01/01 - 2018/06/30 earned -457 unprofit, -1,33% ROI and 725 tips. Such a huge contrast! Reasons? All good with money line tips, but handicaps made a massive harm in second part of the season. Also, small odds (1,75-2,1) were strongly unprofitable... Of course, not a smart basketball leagues selection by me, talk about it later. My pre-season goal was to reach +20000 profit after this season, but now I have less than +16000. Really want to see +20000 as fast as possible. But it wouldn't be easy, because betting "rules" are changing :) I already gave almost 4000 tips in many different basketball leagues. One thing is obvious - "Sometimes Less Is More". I tried a lot of small basketball leagues during playoffs (example: Denmark, Czech, Israel, Sweden, Poland..) and can't reach good results here. I tried a lot of big basketball leagues during regular season (example: NBA, EuroLeague, Spain, Italy, Germany..) and can't reach good results in many of them. Every season 2-5 leagues generated +90% of all season profit. To be effective is crucial in betting industry. From next season, I will focus on ± 5 basketball leagues and sometimes we will take underdogs in others leagues, because dogs are quite stable everywhere. Also, majority of tips will be from Pinnacle and bet365. Strict discipline, math skills, strong psychology and clear understanding of risk versus reward is what I want to see everyday. These decisions means that number of tips will drop from ± 1400 to 500/900 tips per season. Don't know what will happen with odds average and win rate. Expect to see +10% ROI and reach +22000 profit next season.
Few months Review
Things doesn't go my way lately, so it's time to review last few months (from 2018-01-01 to 2018-04-30). It's strange to see such numbers -265.06 units profit, -1.07% ROI, 500 tips, 39.60% win rate and 2.65 average odds. Nothing new with odds average and number of tips. But low hit rate (below 40%) didn't give any profit for us. Really bad stats and I see two explanations WHY: 1) Poor performance from my favourites leagues. Every season one or two basketball leagues made a huge damage for our profit. Two years ago it was EuroLeague and VTB, last season it was Germany. This season it's Spain and EuroCup. 2) My betting strategy doesn't work properly. It worked last 5-7 years, but this season we see many changes in Europe basketball leagues. I can give very good illustration. Majority of my tips are handicaps. Last 4 months handicaps stats: -1147 units profit, -6.25% ROI, 348 picks, 40.52% win rate and 2.38 odds average. Other type of my bets are two way/money line tips. Stats here: +882 units profit, +13.57% ROI, 152 picks, 37.5% win rate and 3.26 odds average. No comment required :) Other thing, phenomenon of Pinnacle. Pinnacle is well-known as the best bookmaker in betting industry. To be a winner here is the hardest thing. My last 4 months balance is -265 units, but we earned +685 units in Pinnacle. No other bookmaker are even close to it. And it's not only last 4 months tendency, it's a long term tendency. I really think about idea to use only Pinnacle and bet365 for next season. It would be professional. Now about next months. This month is the last month of normal basketball season. From June to August we will back to ~2,2 average odds, approximately 50 tips per month, better win rate and summer time tournaments. One direction for myself - try to focus on favourites handicaps or underdogs money lines. If you want to stay on top, you must be able to adapt to change.
Few thoughts about January. It was a terrible month for me. A month when you just can not win. My decision was do not insert picks on few last days. And it was a good decision. When you bet for a living, it isn’t about always making profit/money. One of the keys to success is to limit your losses when you don’t win. Even the most profitable bettors will place losing bets - the trick is to use the right staking method that will manage your money in the most efficient way possible. That's why I chose to skip last ~20/30 picks at all. I really hope, that February will be much better month. Statistically, it should be.