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Published on 02/Dec/2016 10:21
TYPE OF BET: ASIAN HANDICAP
BET ON: LEVANTE UD +0.25
Best Tipster Odd: 2.00 Pinnacle Sports
BEST CURRENT ODD:
STAKE: 5 % bankroll (100 Units)
No Bet Under: 1.95
MATCH RESULT: 2-1 (1-0)
PROFIT: -100 Units
There is a lot of room in this bet as far as probability is concerned.
We are talking about a Girona that has won 4 games at home and has tied 4 (50%) but this time it does against the leader (who takes 4 points with a game played less than can be 4, 5 or 7).
For me there is the 50% thing that Girona wins and 50% of an X2. It is more about 40% of the win (recognizing the favoritism of Girona) and 60% of the draw or win the Levante, even this percentage would be higher but maybe could sin of fanaticism and I do not want.
We found at 1.80 the X2 in bet365, at 1.80 in SBOBET the 0.5 HA, 1.83 in 188bet; And instead we find in the SBOBET itself the contradiction that the X2 is 1.64 and in 188bet the X2 to 1.62.
Trembling from 62% to 55% is a lot of probability difference. More than 7% mismatch. For me the 1.62 is closer to reality.
At the level of play it is true that the Girona at home is strong and has not lost, but is that for this bet is worth the draw. But Levante is also a good team.
We found the Levante - Ray (with the difference of level between both sets at present) at the same level of quotas as a Girona - Levante, considering Levante here as if it were the Ray. I do not know, I think there is a mismatch and the party is going to be more evenly matched than the quotas are. In this line I recommend the X2.
I am publishing it because this quota is going to go down safely in the next few days and it has been two days since the quota came out and it remains, which surprises me.
Very disputed party. Also reocmiendo listen to Radio Granotas, that leaves tomorrow in podcast, to be able to observe lsa bajsa that also presents / displays the Girona, field where certainly the Levante has not lost. The last result there 0-4 year of promotion; And the previous 0-0. Both results would be worth.
Both sets could also be worth the tie given their situation in the table if a game of mutual respect is expected.
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