Mike is new to BetAdvisor but he’s made a great start and will be contributing regularly to our blog.
Bet on: Under +7.00
Stake: 2 % bankroll (40 units)
No Bet Under: 1.78
We had a play on the Giants Under 7, on 7/23 and we will follow up with the same play 7/24. As stated in the previous write up the Brewers failed to drive in runs in very hitter friendly confines over the last two series. That does not bode well when you enter AT&T Park.
In my opinion this is an even stronger under play then the one we had going 7/23.
Bumgarner is the 30th ranked pitcher in adjusted ERA on the year (a number that would be top 20 if you minus one inning vs the Twins) and 7th ranked pitcher the last 30 days on my adjusted scale. The lefty faces a Brewers team with the highest home batting preference in baseball (25-28 Under Away) and the 3rd highest OPS preference toward right handed pitching (7-14 Under vs Lefties). Since 2010, Bumgarner has gone 13.2 innings vs the Brewers, allowing 12 hits and 2 ER’s. The Brewers have yet to see him this year, and while Braun and Weeks could do damage, the rest of the Milwaukee line up will likely struggle as they have for several games. Once again backing up the Giants starter is the best bull pen in baseball.
Gallardo comes in 79th overall and 68th LST 30. The Giants have the 8th strongest left handed OPS preference in baseball (31-38 under vs Righties) and the 4th highest away hitting preference (park factors included, 16-30 Under at home). Historically almost no Giants outside of Keppinger and Shierholtz have had success vs Gallardo, so I suspect SF to struggle connecting enough hits and generating enough extra base hits to score. Since 2010 Gallardo has gone 15 innings, allowing 9 hits, and 1 ER vs the Giants.
Gallardo is 1-6 under all time vs the Giants, Bumgarner 0-2 under all time.