Another dismal day on the tipping front for me yesterday but hope you took note of what I said couldn’t win and might win in the races I didn’t give a selection in, got the wrong Easterby runner in the first and the BANKER Requinto never went a yard yesterday, so that’s a blow out for three days out of three selection wise and only today’s seven races to recover losses and make a profit, as I said before 1 winner over the meet at the prices I select virtually guarantees a profit so all is not lost. It was a dry night near the course where I live with a little breeze so I imagine it would not be quite as slow going today but could be a bit on the tacky side, so onto today, the first race is the…
2.00 The City of York stakes and only the 12 runners to sift through including a couple of runners from the Emerald Isles and a few rogues / characters plus some very in an and out performers including Himalaya who is having his first run for Stef Higgins and he is the sort of horse where the move could revitalise him, Ya Wayl won this last year but that form was 10lbs above anything he had done prior or since so it is a bit of a leap of faith to think he could repeat that so he’s not for me, don’t think either of the Irish runners are good enough, Dafeef has been gelded and moved to William Haggas but he has been beaten in much weaker contests than this so the move and the op would need to have dramatic results for him to figure here, Dream Eater seems to have lost his way this season despite being tried over varying distances, Doncaster Rovers is very consistent without winning often but today’s race is pretty weak so you never know, Majestic Myles just is not good enough, Regal Parade one of the favourites has not been in any sort of form this season and it is a bit of an ask to expect him to produce it all of a sudden, King Torus is interesting, last season he improved with each race until flopping on the very soft going at Longchamp, if you forgive that run he is the class horse in the race and should be fav but he has been off since that run so probably best watched, Karam Albaari is another who this season could be anything and is a big price if as you would expect he would have strengthened up during his break and I could see him running into a place, but it’s a no bet race for me with all the doubts with King Torus the likely winner and Himalaya and Karam Albaari in the places.
2.30 The Melrose handicap, has, as ever, a full contingent of runners and a wide open race so what chance do I have of getting the winner ……well as yesterday proved again high numbers do not have much chance in a race over this trip so you can chuck out the top half dozen drawn high so that only leaves me with 14 possible winners Apache from the Aiden O’Brien yard does not look good enough even with young Joseph taking off 3lbs, the fast pace today will help Whiplash Willie settle a bit better but I think he has his full share of weight now for what he has done, and the same can be said about the Richard Hills ridden Masaraat , Kinyras has been brought along quietly by Sir Michael but he will have all on to turn the tables on Whiplash Willie even on these revised terms, Mark Johnston does not use blinkers often so it is interesting that they are applying them to Halifax who has the odd bit of form to give him a chance here, Communicator is another progressing nicely this season and a fast run race would help this thorough stayer but I think something will out speed him, Pivotman has two way of running if on his best behaviour on these revised terms he can beat Whiplash Willie but who knows what frame of mind he will be in today, Ardlui isn’t good enough and is badly drawn, Lyric Street is untried over this so you have to guess how he would perform so not for me, I have narrowed this down to three runners that I think have a big chance of taking this prize but you need to be a member to find out what they are.
3.05 the Lonsdale Cup don’t think this trip is what Dandino wants, I am waiting for him to be dropped backed to 10f, but that is my opinion, Blue Bajan back on the flat has been a model of consistency for his new trainer he often travels well but doesn’t always produce what you think and he might get out stayed today, the front runner Duncan likes it here but looks like he might set the race up for some of the others over this trip, the race just fell right for Opinion Poll last time and he won’t find it so today so not for me, the obvious one is Harris Tweed who has everything in his favour except maybe the distance which I would be worried about so I would rather take a chance on the 3yr old trained by David Elsworth at around 16.5 he gets lumps of weight from all the other runners and he has improved significantly with every run if he carries on the improvement and there is no reason he wouldn’t he could improve past these so he would be my suggestion for a small bet.
3.40 The Ebor and the race we have all been waiting for, the highlight of the week, interestingly enough as I look at the betting and I presume it is a mistake but with the draw playing such a big part in the race Betfair are not showing the draw for each runner as they usually do in the betting forecast, so as in the previous race you can forget about the 6 drawn widest which takes out 3 of the front ones in the betting, Sapatapadi, Lost in the Moment and Mount Athos, who have a mountain to climb from their draw, Fox Hunt is unusually, for a Mark Johnston trained horse, the model of consistency and taking into account the draw and the revised terms he should finish around where Lost in the Moment finishes, but I think he has a bit too much weight to win, Nehaam is very interesting and seem to have retained most of his form after his injury, this step back up in trip is what he needed, just not sure if his general level of form on softish going is what he needs, Moyenne Corniche is the best drawn of the Ellison runners and may fare best but he is thoroughly exposed so it would be a shock if he won, have narrowed this down to just the four runners but that info is reserved for members.
4.15 Not a race to get too involved in with most of the runners capable of any amount of improvement, Gusto is a shocking price and will be my place lay of the day with at least four of the other runners having better form, it will be a fast run race with lots up there likely to want to make the running, Vocational looks to be the solid one but I was impressed with the improvement shown by Excellete last time so not a backing race for me with too many unknowns.
4.50 The Betfred Nursery, Holy Roman Warrior from the resurgent Fahey stable will be my second place lay of the day, it was a very weak race he won here last time, Comical from the Mark Johnston stable looks outclassed today, and even with the Enforcer on board the same applies to Risky Act, I think it is hard to split the Hannon runners and if I would have to choose I would go for Wolfgang at the price because Crius is unproven on the going, normally another race not to get too involved in because any of these can show any amount of improvement as they grow up but I think I have one here that has sneaked under the radar.
5.20 The last race of the day and only a small field of 13 runners, now Stone of Folca is a non runner, to sift through so an easy race to solve in comparison to some of the others over the week, Marine Commando even though from the in form Richard Fahey stable is not good enough to win this, Lady Royale is improving but has it all to do today in a stronger race than she is used to, Cocktail Charlie will be better suited by this return to 5f but he has his fair share of weight against todays opposition, The Thrill is Gone needs quicker going than it is today and is very inconsistent, narrowed this down to just three runners but once again to find out what they are you need to be a member.