This free tip comes to you from Mike McClain, one of our baseball tipsters who has recently come back online after off-the season break.
DETROIT TIGERS vs BOSTON RED SOX Tip and PreviewUSA MLB Baseball 5th April 2012 at 19:05
|Bet on: Over +7.00 Best Odds: 2.00 at Stake: 2 % bankroll (40 units) No Bet Under: 1.80||Waiting for result|
Justin Verlander posted record breaking number last season; he’s clearly the elite of the elite and will be given odds as such. I expect he will have another strong year, but to expect a repeat of last season is asking a lot. Jon Lester posted a 3. 47 ERA last year and according to my regression data that’s an accurate number for his actual performance last season. The 3. 47 ERA is also right about at my projection for his total this season.Some good pitching in this match up which is why we see the total at 7, but within these great pitchers is a penchant for underachieving this time of the year. For as dominant as Verlander is, he has a career 4. 72 ERA/1. 31 WHIP in April with a losing record of 9-14. It’s the only month he has a losing record in. His worst month in both ERA and WHIP have come in April 3 straight years. If you want to get the V get to him early. While Lesters numbers aren’t as pronounced the same applies. April is is second to worst month in ERA, WHIP, and BAA. The last 4 years these two starters have combined to go 7-1 on the over in the first start of the season with a combined ERA of 10. 12 and a WHIP 1. 55 in those 8 starts.I project the Red Sox to have the #1 rated OPS in MLB this year and the Tigers to have the #4 rated OPS. The Tigers add a Prince and return several players from injury and Boston will once again be Boston, among the league leaders in run output.Should these teams get into the BP’s early both BP’s are down contributors. Andrew Bailey the Red Sox new closer is out along with Franklin Morales who absorbed 32 innings last year. The bigger hit is Detroit’s Al Alburquerque who pitched 43. 1 key relief innings last year for Detroit for a 1. 87 ERA. He was a key player in a soft BP for Detroit and with his absence leaves them little depth.I like the Over in this Match Up
Detroit/Boston Over 7
Pitchers Must Start
Lester vs Verlander
Tip published on the 5th April 2012 at 6:20