Hello everyone and once again welcome back to the Betadvisor blog, hope you’re having a good look around the site and reading all the blog’s anyway back to me I hope you’re not here to find winners, I’m in about as good form as the Indian cricket team, but as we all know form is temporary and class is permanent and particularly if you look at my figures over the last 12 months.
So, on to today’s racing and it looks to be very hard today lots of tight races, plenty of runners and a few class horses on show even at lowly Kempton for a change, plus a jump meeting from Stratford…… not that I meant Stratford is poor racing but the flat racing has a more attractive look about it, take care with Haydock because the going on the sprint course as always is much faster than the round course, Kempton is a track I don’t like, reminds me too much of American racing for some reason, so I never bet there, Mussleborough and Thirsk have too much draw bias for me to get involved with so best to concentrate on the other meetings.
Frankie Dettori is a very interesting booking for Merchant of Dubai trained by Jim Goldie but he would need to come back to the very best form he showed when trained by Alan Swinbank I think the going might be a bit fast for him, Tominator upped is game last time but at Chester which is much different from here so not sure he would repeat that, Blissful Moment ran as well as expected last time but not sure if the gelding has the form to win this, Ajaan certainly has the form, but it is whether he produces it that is the problem, but he will one day, Activate will like the faster going but it’s best waiting to see if his fall last time has affected him, Deauville Flyer likes it here, has blinkers on for the first time and is consistent but needs to find more and David Allan prefers the other stable runner, Ile de Re had a troubled passage last time but needs to improve to turn the tables on Tominator on the same terms, I think that the going will be too fast for Zuider Zee and he may not even run so not for me, I have narrowed this down to just three runners that I think have a chance of winning this but you need to be a member to find out what they are.
The going today will be too fast for Cheveton, Piscean is much better on the a.w but the gelding is worth another try back on the turf to see if he can bring his a.w improvement to the turf, Medici Time needs everything to drop just right for him, Hazelriggs is very hard to win with although David Allan usually gets the best out of him, Courageous is too inconsistent for my liking, the way the race will be run will suit Your Gifted who goes well for a lad but I think the race is best left to the favourite Zero Money who should be able to blast off and leave the others in his wake but the price is too short for me to put him up as a selection for the subscribers.
Lowther just does not look good enough even on his best form, and the same can be said about Swift Gift trained by Ed Dunlop and the Michael Bell trained Gramercy who did show a glimmer of from last time but is unproven over this distance, change of jockeys today for Pastoral Player because Steve Drowne is at Haydock to ride Bated Breath who has looked as if this trip would be ideal without running well over it yet, Bridgefield won a weak race at Newmarket then ran ok over this trip at Goodwood but I think others have better chances, Atlantic Sport is interesting now returned to his optimum trip and is weighted to cause a shock if you go back to his three runs in July, but have narrowed this down again to just three runners that I think can win this but you need to be a member or subscribe to find out what they are.
On form Bated Breath would have a chance to turn the tables on Dream Ahead but Dream Ahead won with authority that day so I don’t think so, the ground has come right for Delegator but he has it all to do today the same applies to Masamah who’s progression was slowed last time on rain softened going, Society Rock needs it softer and I am not sure if he is good enough, Dream Ahead seems to be losing the plot a bit this year for whatever reason, last year he looked virtually invincible until meeting Frankel where I backed him to beat Frankel ……on hindsight very foolish I know, but this year something seems to have gone wrong, so you never know what sort of race he is going to run and I am not sure if even on top form is sprinting form is the best in the race, Wooton Bassett has always looked a sprinter to me so I am expecting a big run from him today but the selection another freebie has to be Hoof It he has improved dramatically this year and has I predicted did not handle the drop back in trip and softer going last time, so today he has no excuses and is my BANKER of the day, he has the faster ground and the 6th furlong to prove to everyone he has the class to be this year’s top sprinter.
Barbican and Halfsin are weighted to deadheat but both need to find more at the weights to take this, Fulgur is steadily improving but the faster ground here is a definite worry for one so short in the betting so not for me, Rain Mac did has he was expected last time when winning a Pontefract handicap but the worth of that form is a worry, Tanfeeth and Spifer are weighted to dead heat on their last run and again both would need to improve to win this, Parlour Games did well to win last time from an impossible draw so the form is a bit better than it looks but still worry that was a sub-standard Melrose because all of the fancied runners were drawn out wide, I think the race rests between three runners but to find out what they are you need to be a member.
Factotom is back over hurdles after appearing to hate jumping over the larger obstacles, but who knows what to expect, Ashammar does not have good enough form to win this, and the same applies to the Sophie Leech trained Heron Bay even with blinkers back on today, Amazing King is very consistent and Kyle James can claim the 5lbs but he has a lot of weight for what he has done so far, Olympian has gone off the boil a bit on his last two runs but back on quicker going on a track that should suit he might surprise, Toshi has been running poorly since April and a major revival in form would be needed here, Fujin Dancer was not given the most “ enterprising” ride last time and has a chance here but I think the going may be too fast and the course too sharp, Tara Warrior is too short in the betting, he has not looked the easiest ride and I think they might go too quick for him on this sharp track, so you now know what won’t win but to find out what will win you need to be a member.
The selection and another freebie is Domino Dancer, his front running style will suit this track he likes the fast going, and the booking of claimer Aodhagan Conlon to claim 5lbs is very significant, he has a 14% strike rate over hurdles so is very competent, and at around 7.4 looks a solid bet.
Gouray Girl is tried in a tongue tie today but who knows what to expect, not sure if this easy course is what Azameera wants to show her best improved form coming on stiff tracks, Valencia isn’t good enough on any form she has shown so far, Submission reverted to type last time after a couple of good wins.
The selection another freebie, the horse with the best form, in form and likes the going is Electra Star and with Adam Beschizza riding who can claim 3lbs off her back ,she has it all in her favour but because the price is too short can’t give it out to subscribers as a selection.
Poppy Seed has a lot of weight and is fully exposed so not for me, Gallagher is totally out of form, and the move to Dandy Nicholls has not rekindled any spark yet but today’s faster ground might help, Sutton Veny is not good enough and will be my place lay of the day, even with Kieron Fallon on board the Milton Bradley trained runner Solemn looks to have it all to do, Magical Macey would prefer softer going Judge and Jury is consistent but one or two of the other runners could improve past him, the two I like are Tyfos and Living it Large, Tyfos will be suited by the race is likely to be run but I think
the selection another Living it Large has more improvement in him and with John Fahy claiming 3lbs off that makes all the difference he should be able to lie up with the pace and hopefully hang on to win, his price is too short for me to put up as a selection to the members so another freebie.
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