McClain Pick

Colby Lewis appears ready to begin a career year at face value, 2 starts, 1. 42 ERA, 1. 03 WHIP, and a disgusting 15 Strike outs to only 1 walk. Dig deeper and it appears evident a shellacking is in his near future.

10. 66 K /9 is unsustainable, his career high was 8. 78 in 2010. His . 71 BB/9 is completely unsustainable; his career best in that department was last year at 2. 52. I feel those two stats are more indicative of the teams he faced in his first two starts. In his two starts he faced the 28th and 29th ranked teams in baseball in K/BB hitting ratios (Boston’s offense ranks 9th and traditionally is top 3 in this area). So he will not be fanning batters at will here. Moving past SO/BB, Lewis is carrying a LOB% of 95. 2% well past his career best at 73%. Regardless, of how his LOB% ends up, nobody will ever hit near the number he currently rests on.

All these things point to regression. Now regression is one thing, but what I’ve mentioned isn’t even the most troubling part. Lewis has always been a victim of the long ball with a hideous career mark of 1. 33 HR’s per 9. This year it’s . 71 HR per 9. You would expect with all these great stats that his GB% would have to be strong. Well it’s not; in fact it’s dropped 17% since last year. The HR numbers are fantasy land. He’s allowing a ton of fly balls. He’s allowing a ton of solid contact. His Line Drive% on the year is at 35. 3%! That is off the charts. His fastball has dropped 1. 6 MPH, as well as the velocity on all his pitches. Behind all those great surface numbers is pitcher who could have already got lit up at least once but the ball went his way. I really don’t trust that will last much longer, especially against a patient hitting team like the Red Sox.

Jon Lester is off to a great start, 15 innings and a . 93 WHIP. His FB% has spiked, he seems to have confidence in the FB more so then previous seasons. Statistically speaking he is due for a regression as well. He won’t sustain a sub 1. 00 WHIP for an entire year by any stretch. Still, Lester is the number 1 for the Red Sox, and rightfully so. 5 straight years of sub 3. 5 ERA ball will make you the #1 on most teams a great #2 at the worst.

Texas is a solid hitting club; they should certainly put a few on the board. That said we have yet to see the full offensive fire works from Texas this year. OPS rates top ten but they rank pitifully in SO/BB ratio at 27th. So for Texas to score they need to connect hits, a poor SO/BB ratio will force you to do that. That isn’t something Texas is doing either. It’s taking 2 hits to drive in every 1 run so far which ranks at a tie for 20th in majors. Looking at the Texas bats verse Lester and I expect 7 innings of work keeping it at or under 3 ER’s.

It’s never a bad play to take the Red Sox at home on a short line. About the worst you could do in that spot is breaking even the last few years. Lester is 46-19 in his last 65 home starts good for a 71% winning %. That converts to -245 on the break even. Texas is a solid team, but given the variables I will gladly pay this price on the Red Sox.

Boston -117 ML

Pitchers Must Start
Lewis Vs Lester