We recorded some new videos with SBRForum yesterday. Jason Mills has given us his views on these matches as well so check out the videos and see whether Jason agreed with Stuarts selections.
Valencia v Villarreal
The last 12 matchups in all competitions have resulted in a 3-4-5 advantage to Villareal – In the last 3 seasons it’s been closer 2-2-2 ….. But there is a clear home advantage between these two – the bookies usually get this one right and Valencia despite being lower in the league are favourites here and are enjoying a decent run of home form with Villareal the reverse away.
Valencia to win 2.16 Pinnacle
Wolfsburg v Augsburg
This is a very close match to predict – I am torn between the draw or an away win – just to show you my ratings are home 0.143 draw 0.997 away 1.000 – historically in the last 6 meetings the results are 1-3-2 with Wolsburg not winning at home – x2 fair odds should be 1.83 but the odds on double chance x2 are much lower – and the Asian handicap odds aren’t any better. If my arm was twisted then a straight away win at 3.65 but a cautious approach would be to split the bet at draw 3.65 and away 3.65 at the best single available odds – returning the 1.83 for the x2 double chance.
Real Madrid v Barcelona
Ronaldo vs Messi – the last 12 matches between these two in all competitions couldn’t be more even, with 4 wins 4 draws and 4 loses each, with only one of those 12 matches ending under 2.5 goals and that was a 1-1 draw. But in the last 6 matches Real have gained the upper hand and given this seasons form I expect that run to continue .
This season Real Madrid are undefeated in their last 18 matches, they have won their last 9 home matches, they have won 92% of their home matches, they have won 79% of all their matches, they have scored at least one goal in each of their last 21 matches, with 75% of their matches finishing over 2.5 goals scored.
Barce won’t be pushovers they have won 75% of all their matches with 71% of their matches finishing over 2.5 goals scored in total.
I am happy betting Real to win 2.30 or over 2.5 is 1.62
A tempting bet is to split the stakes on the correct score market 2-1 or 2-2 at odds of 8/1 and 12/1 respectively the return would be a 5/1 bet – these scores have come in 50% of the time these sides have met.