Hello again and once again welcome back to day three of the Bet Advisor Doncaster St Ledger daily webcast, I hope your all having a good look around the site and registering for a few of the tipsters and free trials most of whom are in good form, unlike myself I couldn’t punch my way out of a paper bag at the minute to save my life, but as I keep telling myself form is temporary and class is permanent, and remember unlike other sites if you are not happy with any tipster you have subscribed to because he is out of form you can change to another one, and when he is back in form you can return to your original selected tipster……. I will have nobody left soon.
As I thought yesterday it was not a good day to have many selections with a few odd results and our single selection Farlow never getting into the race behind the impressive International debut who has really found some form along with the Paul Midgeley stable who are really flying, having had 10 winners in the last 14 days which is richly deserved from a small stable who put so much effort into the game with inexpensive horses.
Anyway onto today it’s been raining on and off most of the night where I live 10 miles or so from the course and apparently they have had a little of that on the course so I imagine it would just freshen the ground up and it would be the same as it was yesterday, just a little on the quick side of good. Today’s racing looks a little bit easier than it did yesterday.
The first race the Flying Childers stakes a race for young sprinters that are not top class but are too good for Nurseries, it’s not a race I would get involved with, too many horses closely matched or flopped last time and seemingly on a recovery mission here, like Requinto who flopped last time when well weighted against older horses, and is best watched, there is not much to choose between Burwaaz and Lilbourne Lad on York running, but I think Burwaaz will be better suited by the drop back in trip, Angels will Fall another from the Hills stable that flopped at York and to be fair a few of them have run this week that did flop have not run much better, My Propeller is interesting, the filly won a 5f race in a canter by 17 lengths which is some going then didn’t run as well at Newmarket over 6 furlongs, but back over 5f she won fairly cosily last time at York in a decent time so looks to have an excellent chance today but too many if’s and buts to give out as a selection.
The Mallard stakes, which in case you lot didn’t know besides being a duck the Mallard was a magnificent sleek, streamlined green train that held the world speed record for a steam train………now you know what I used to do when I was younger, this race I’m pretty confident is going to give us our first winner of the meeting from only 4 selections, even though he likes it here the Mtoto gelding Theology surely has too much weight for what he has done, same applies to Harelstone Times trained by John Dunlop who has not exactly been setting the world on fire this season, even with Kieron Fallon riding again Bourne is very one paced and has been getting beat in some moderate races, and will be my biggest place Lay of the day today at around 2.2, Itlaq has run much better since being fitted with a tongue strap but needs to find another 7lbs to figure here, as is a feature of the Johnston runners Shernando flopped last time after showing an improved run but even if back to his best the gelding will struggle to win this, Hawk Mountain is another one that likes it here, is consistent but doesn’t win often, so I am left with just three runners that I think can win this, the three are Tominator who is consistent at this level but is another who wins rarely and needs everything to drop just right, Precision Break who is unbeaten on this track and won this race last year under today’s pilot, the worry is that he has changed stables since last year and on his first run for this yard ran disappointingly albeit at Chester, so would need to show marked improvement to win this again, the winner though and a very confident selection is Eternal Heart and if she was trained by anyone other than Mark Johnston the colt would have been my banker he has progressed all season, handles the going, has the best form in the race when behind Motrice last time, the trip is exactly right and the main thing, unlike the Chester course which he did not handle when behind a couple of these, the galloping course and long run in will be perfect to let him get into his stride, so at 7.2 he is a magnificent price.
Blue Bajan has been a model of consistency for David O’ Meara without looking good enough to win one of these, I can’t wait to see how he fares for his new trainer back over hurdles, there is no reason why Bergo would overturn a deficit of 4.5 lengths on his York conqueror Opinion Poll, Tactian should set the race up by leading at a decent pace but whether we will have a Royal victory I doubt, Saddlers Rock could be flattered by his run last time in a slowly run Ledger trial, yes he has a light weight but whether he will be strong enough has a 3yr old for this I am not sure, Motrice did us all a big favour a couple of weeks ago and was given a peach of a ride that day and if adopting the same tactics today by kicking mid race he will get the fav in trouble, the fav is a dour stayer who can do nothing quickly and if a couple of these can get a break on him he will struggle to get to them and for that reason is going to be my lay of the day at around 2.8, I wish I could say that Motrice would definitely win, but the race last time was as I predicted there for her taking with the fav being a false odds on shot, today she has not got everything in her favour, if you want to know what I think will win the race then you need to be a member.
As you know if you have read my blogs previously I don’t usually bet in fillies races because fillies are like women….. you never know what to expect from one day to the next, but today I am going to make an exception, because the bet is so strong and it is twofold a lay and a win and best of all it’s free to you viewers / readers because the price is too short for my members, I think the fav Fallen Idol is a shocking price, and is going to be a massive PLACE lay for me at around 1.38, she won on her debut over 7 furlongs without being particularly impressive, a fillies maiden in a slow time, on fast going, today there are at least three horses with better form, Switcher who has progressed with every race and looks like she will progress further with this step up in trip, Samitar who ran a blinder in the Newmarket sales race, and the banker of the meeting so far Regal Realm, she was not given the best of rides last time and her form which is the best in the race anyway is value for more, her jockey got her into trouble and she did well to get him out of it when showing class and acceleration to take the race, this extra furlong is tailor made so two free bankers in one race, place lay of the fav Fallen For You and Regal Realm to win easily …………..I could be eating a lot of humble pie tomorrow, but I believe in saying and backing my opinions.
Not a betting race for me, there is a major doubt about the fav settling in this small runner affair, he was not impressive first time out, the going is not as quick and is fav more by reputation / stable than what he has done, Mizwaaj looked fat on his first run and is sure to have come on massively for that, and Hot Sugar progressed a lot from his first run and if doing the same again could be in the shake up, so no bets.
Remember as yesterday this race is 6.5 furlongs and that half furlong does make all the difference as it did yesterday, think that they are being forced to run Below Zero today because he goes up 6lbs from tomorrow, he has too much weight, he was able to dominate and set is own slow pace on his last two victories but up against these 6 furlong specialists I doubt he will be able to do that, Kanaf gets too far behind and then needs things to drop just right, he often looks like he could do better but doesn’t, Docofthebay has never won over this trip so not for me, Noble Citizen will struggle to confirm Ascot form with Lutine Belle on these revised terms and it is interesting that Richard Hughes is booked for Lutine Bell who needs holding up until the very last minute, Grissom will struggle to win this, he needs a stiff 6 furlongs or 7 furlongs to show his best and he has neither today, Fathsta is very hard to win with and has not been running at his best lately, have narrowed this down to just three that I think can win this but again to find out what they are you need to be a member.
Even though Mirrored is a course and distance winner he was disappointing last time, yes the saddle slipped but don’t think this Saddlers Wells gelding is good enough today, Audemar is better on the a.w and he has a lot of weight for what he has achieved and you have to think that others will be better, Art History is another much better on the a.w, Dumbarton ran a shocker last time when more was expected so maybe not fulfilling what he is showing at home, Beaten Up is not for me at the prices, he won a moderate race on his debut in April and has been off since, I’ve narrowed this down to just three runners that I think can win this, but once again you need to be a member to find out what they are, so get your hands in your pocket and subscribe.
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