Ebor Festival – Day 3 with Micky Biggs

Hello everyone and welcome back yesterday’s selections, Cashelgar ran a shocker and I would think the sales ring beckons, Bow to no One ran a good race without looking likely to win, but we will get there.

We have had a fair bit of rain overnight where I live near to the course but it’s a lovely morning now so the going might just be a tiny bit more testing today than it was yesterday so on to today’s first race:

2.00 A nice easy race to start with only 20 runners going to post, usually horses drawn out wide don’t win races here over this distance so that helps a bit, Sharayeen has form that could win this but he has not shown the same sparkle since his seasonal debut, the likely strong pace will help Warlu settle a bit better than he did last time but he still looks vulnerable at the weights, Life and Soul from the Amanda Perrett yard is consistent but does not win often and looks the second string on jockey bookings,  even though he won this last year The Fonz has been beaten and fav too many times and even with Fallon up would need to produce a lifetime best to win this so not for me, Kiama Bay has progressed lately but he has a lot of weight for what he has achieved, Waldovogel is consistent and was not given the best of rides last time so could sneak into the money, anyway I have narrowed this down to just three runners that my subscribers will be hearing about later today.

2.30 The Gimcrack stakes looks a weak renewal of this race with no obvious stars of the future on show, Burwaaz will be suited by this easy track but the 6f still might stretch his stamina, B Fifty Two ran a blinder in France but not sure if the form is good enough to win this, Justineo’s form is definitely not good enough to win this, on the ratings alone he needs to find 20lbs so not for me at all, and the same applies to Sardanapalus who struggled to win on his debut and yes there will be improvement to come, 20lbs is a lot in one go, Reply is another one I would be against, if he wasn’t trained by Aiden O’Brien he would be more than twice the price, the race looks to lie between Lilbourne Lad and Caspar Netscher and I would favour the latter but because he is unproven on the going.  It’s a no bet race for me.

3.05 The Strensall stakes, not a race to get too heavily involved in but Biondetti cannot win on the form he has shown so far, Penititent has a visor on for the first time which could bring about some of the needed improvement but he looks the Haggas stable second string, Tazahum is another that needs to find 7lbs to figure at the business end of this race and that has not looked likely so not for me, Nationalism looks the one most likely to give his running and looks pretty solid for a place but will struggle to win, I have predicted both times when Green Destiny would get beaten and been right both times, I think he is the type of horse Fallon rides well but whether he is good enough to give weight to the progressive Dux Scholar I am not sure, so not a betting race for me for those reason.

3.40 The Nunthorpe stakes, Bated Breath will be hampered by the slower ground conditions according to his trainer so you have to respect that, Masamah at 5yrs old is progressing and if carrying on with the improvement might get in the money but he won’t get things all his own way up front today, Prohibit improved last time and if repeating that looks a solid place bet, Hoof it has improved enormously this season but this is harder, he won’t find the runners coming back to him over this shorter trip so has much as I would love to see this “ hoss” win for Mick Easterby I think that he will struggle, 2yr old’s have won this before and the 2yr old Requinto getting lumps of weight has the speed and proved he can handle any going and is my BANKER of the meeting so far….. which isn’t saying much since all my other selections have run shockers.

4.15 Not a race I have any interest in with too many not run or having no form, so best left alone but if you had to have an interest then Llanarmon Lad has the best form and looked as if he would come on for his debut and the extra furlong he has today.

4.50 Another wide open race even though there are a few non-runners which narrows it down slightly, Madam Macie has a long absence to overcome and it would be a major training feat to have this filly ready even though she won on her racecourse debut and then her seasonal debut in 2010, this race is more competitive and the softer going is a worry, Lady Zamora has never run as if 7f on turf was going to be her trip and she runs too many poor races to be considered, Rougette simply is not good enough to win this, and the same applies to Jeannie Galloway from the inform Fahey yard, I think Coolmix is the best of the Fahey runners but she improved a lot for the heavy going last time and was in the right place making the running, the drying ground won’t help her, Queen of Cash will struggle to confirm form with No Poppy on these revised terms, I’ve narrowed this down to just four runners that I think the race lies between but that info is for my subscribers only.

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