UEFA Supercup – Real Madrid v Sevilla

Last seasons Champions League Winners face up against league rivals (and Europa League Winners) Sevilla in the UEFA Supercup which will take place at the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday.  This game is often seen as a bit of a glamour friendly in European football terms but there is no shortage of spice when these sides normally face up against each other and that should certainly create a little bit more interest than normal.

Real Madrids pre-season has been a little bit miserable so far.  Losses against Inter Milan (on penalties), AS Roma and Manchester United don’t generally indicate a bright start to the season but this is Real Madrid we’re talking about, one of the biggest spending sides in the World, featuring Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and now James Rodriguez (yes, I know I’m missing out a lot of other World Class players).   Sevilla have been faring a lot better in their pre-season matches with 4 wins in their 6 games so far, one draw and one loss.  They did lose one of their most influential players though with Ivan Rakitic moving to Barcelona during the summer.  Replacing a player of his quality is going to be very difficult but they have brought in youngster Denis Suarez from Barcelona on loan and Grzegorz Krychowiak for just under £5m from French side Reims, both of whom can play in midfield and will be doing their best to fill the void.

Unai Emery is a smart and wily coach, he’ll be looking forward to the chance to pit his wits against Carlo Ancelotti who could conceivably have been sent on his way if his side had not managed to win the Champions League last season.  It certainly is looking like it could be a good tactical battle and money bags Real Madrid going up against relative paupers Sevilla is exactly the kind of battle that will attract attention in the media.

So, who’s going to win?  On current form you would probably have to back Sevilla who are winning games right now, albeit against significantly weaker opponents.  Money talks though and it would be difficult to look past Real Madrid for overall winners in this game.  they certainly have the talent at their disposal to ensure this game is played the way they want and with none of their players (with the exception of Di Maria who looks likely to leave the club) getting to the final of the World Cup the players should have all had the chance to get fully fit and prepared for this one.  For the record, Real Madrid are hot favourites at around 1.42 for the win, Sevilla are at significantly longer odds, on average you can back them at around 6.88.

At 1.42, I don’t see any value in backing Real for the win and backing over 2.5 goals is equally short odds (average 1.47) which rules that one out for me too.  You do generally see goals in games between these two sides though so you could look at other goal lines for your betting (over 3 is at 1.76, over 3.5 is at 2.19).

With something like 137 markets being available on this match I’ve been searching for a “Red card in match” market and unfortunately I’m yet to find anything.  There is clearly some niggle between these two sides as this particular paring seems to throw up a greater than normal number of red cards so if you can find that market and they are offering any kind of reasonable odds (above 1.65 I’d say) then I’d certainly go for it.

Much like the Community Shield, traditionally this game can go over or under 2.5 goals in fairly equal measure and with a history of high scoring encounters it is clearly a bit of a risk to expect to see a low scoring game here.  That being said, I am going to be putting a small amount of my own money on this game finishing under 3 goals, both of these sides will be some way off peak preparation for this game (the league doesn’t kick off for another 11 days after this game), each side has some new players to bed down, Real Madrid will want to win the SuperCup for the second time but also know that Sevilla will want to see them pressing for the win and then try to hit them on the break.  At odds of 2.11 with SBOBet I feel it’s worth the risk, though I wouldn’t advise putting too much on it.

What do you think?  Let us know in the comments section below.

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