Trainers worth opposing when favourite in a Flat Turf Maiden Race
Those that like to lay favourites in general, will often find its best to look at maiden races to ply their trade. The reason for this as there is more unpredictability about a specific outcome occurring due to the race mainly containing lightly race individuals or those that haven’t made their racecourse debut.
This makes it very difficult for the bookmakers to price up a race accurately with less information to be relied upon. To this very day, odd compilers still price up horses based on a trainers reputation rather than what they know to be factual which can only really be ascertained by what has been achieved on the racecourse.
Even horses that have been whispered to be training well at home don’t necessarily perform as expected when in an actual race as there is a certainly a different requirement running at half pace than at full speed. Furthermore, there is the valid point of what may be good in one’s stable may not be so good if in another yard.
Going back a little, to the point I made about maiden runners being based on a trainer’s reputation can be provided by one reputable establishment, arguably the best current trainer in Europe of Group class horses, that being Aiden O’Brien.
Let’s have a look at his overall record when backing his runners who go off favourite in maiden races.
Bets: 914 Wins: 405 Strike rate: 44% P/L -93.88
So despite a win strike rate that is more than reasonable you would have recorded a significant loss to one euro or sterling level staking plan. In addition, it does not make much of a difference if his runners have had previous racetrack experience or not, regardless of the number of runs taking place previously you will still have made a loss.
There is a clear correlation going further down the list of trainers that the more high profile you are as a trainer the tighter the odds become. Below are some more trainers that look worth opposing in the long term in such circumstances.
Bets: 340 Wins:115 Strike rate: 34% P/L -60.37
Bets: 236 Wins:79 Strike rate:33 % P/L -54.34
Bets: 544 Wins:224 Strike rate:41 % P/L -54.32
Sir Michael Stoute
Bets: 619 Wins:287 Strike rate:46 % P/L -33.07