Novice Races – National Hunt Racing
A Guide To Betting On National Hunt Racing. – Novice Races
Novice races are for horses that have not won this type of event before the start of the current season. More often than not you will find that these horses are lightly raced in this discipline either it’s their first or second season as a novice. They could still have plenty of racecourse experience just in a different discipline such as previously contesting flat races before making the switch in codes.
There are various observational techniques to identify which horses can progress up the ladder quickly and be amongst the top novices of the current crop per season.
Not all decent flat horses make the transition successfully, they may have the required speed but they first have to demonstrate they are able to jump at speed and get the distance in a fast run race when they contest a better event in time.
So it’s always worth noting a horse that is able to get from one side to another with fluency and speed. Without attaining those traits through training, natural ability or the combination of the two, then it is likely they will not be able to reach the top amongst their peers and will end up being better suited to lower grade races within the division such as contesting a novice handicap based on their allocated mark.
By being able to spot horses that appear to be natural by the way they shape over an obstacle during flight can give early clues to future potential.
A study of the breed can give some other useful information if the horse has yet to make its debut over the distance, or yet to race on the surface.
However, racecourse evidence is much more reliable when it comes to National Hunt Racing and for that reason, I prefer to see all the horses to have already contested such an event and the more the better, that way you take a small part of the element of risk out of the equation or at the least give yourself a better chance to make a more educated decision based on the facts in hand.
Novices can improve quickly from race to race as they learn their trade and some improve or digress more rapidly than others, that can sometimes be the simple explanation for unexpected results or more accurately say against market expectations at the time.
Some trainers prefer to bring their horses more forward after they have gained a few runs under their belt in this discipline. This could be a case of giving their horses more time to adapt or to acquire a favourable mark for when conditions turn out to be more suitable.
I, therefore, suggest studying the trainer’s modus operandi in more depth when it comes to novices, these are the kind of clues that can churn out winners in the right circumstances and keep your linear profit totals on an upward curve.
Here is just a very simple example below;
Trainer Ms. C Levelle has a more consistent habit than most of her peers when it comes to getting her horses to win a novice handicap event at the first of asking.
92 bets, 19 winners at a strike rate of 20.65 percent and a profit of 58.32 euros to a one euro stake per bet.
Just as importantly some trainers like to get their novice runners primed for their debut run, again this is worth investigating further and acting accordingly if you intend to bet in these types of races.