National Hunt – Handicap Races
A Guide To Betting – National Hunt Handicap Races
National Hunt Handicap Races. I mentioned before in a previous article that nearly 50 percent of all flat races in the UK are national hunt handicap races, this principle roughly applies in equal measure to races involving obstacles.
My personal preference when betting in race types of this nature is to seek out the better quality events, which is indicated by the prize money on offer and it’s class status.
I can’t stress enough the importance of betting on horses that are more than likely to be better prepared because of the potential incentives involved for connections. That is not to say that other races are necessarily treated any differently from a trainer’s perspective but maybe subconsciously the method applied to the due diligence process tends to be given more thought and care for the better races.
There are some trainers who specifically target certain handicap races during the season, this is worth noting. Breaking down some of their stats can also highlight some profitable angles and allow you to make better informed decisions.
It’s not just positive stats that can be helpful but negative ones as well, this may well assist in avoiding a potential losing bet or give you the confidence to oppose a horse on the strength of that negativity.
For example, if you were following the Trainer P J Rothwell and backing the stable’s runners in handicap races since he took out a license, then you would have had 2360 bets to date (at the time of writing) and won only 5.36 percent of the time, representing a loss of 980.17 euros if betting one euro per bet, if you were betting 10 euros per bet then you can time that figure by ten! So maybe opposing their runners in handicap races over the long term would be worth considering.
Here’s just another example, this time of a positive stat that maybe worth considering in handicap races. If you backed all of A J Honeyball runners contesting a handicap either over fences or hurdles, then you would have achieved a win strike rate at around a respectable 20 percent, with 109 winners from 541 bets and with a profit of 120.53 euros to one euro per bet.
These are, of course, just very basic examples and there are many more meaningful stats to query in your quest for winners but small indicators such as the examples provided can be pointers and can help in narrowing down the field to the more likely contenders on a more consistent basis.