MLB is King

In the states we have four major sports markets, American football, Baseball, Hockey, and Basketball. If you want to add American sports to your portfolio MLB stands out as the undisputed king of opportunity and profitability.

Consider these regular season stats on annual play volumes counting sides and totals

NFL: 16 game season, 32 team league.  NFL offers a total of 512 wagering opportunities each season.

NHL: 82 game season, 30 team league. NHL offers a total of 2460 wagering opportunities each season.

NBA: 82 game season, 30 team league. NBA offers a total of 2460 wagering opportunities each season.

MLB: 162 games season, 30 team league. MLB offers a total of 4860 wagering opportunities each season.

With large opportunity, comes the ability to be more selective. With the ability to be more selective comes the opportunity to produce higher quality selections.

Outside of the play volumes MLB enjoys it’s also near the bottom of the four major American sports in market efficiency. NFL is the undisputed most popular sport in America. NBA is the second most popular sport to wager on in the United States. In these markets, with the increased volume bookmakers take on, it forces the markets to be more efficient. It’s even worse in a sport like NFL in which odds will release nearly a full week prior to the event starting. That time frame further strengthens the markets ability to adjust the odds to the exact long term probabilities of each event.

Out of all of the four major sports leagues NHL and MLB remain the least popular sports to wager on.  The result is a market that is not as efficient as the rest of the big four American sports. NHL is the least popular American sport and also the least efficient market. MLB makes up for that by having 2400 more plays per regular season and a very short turn around time to release the odds for the following match. This information in itself distinguishes MLB as the most profitable of the American professional sports, but MLB even takes it a step further by making it easier for the tipster to be successful.

If you wanted to buy a stock you would research all the pertinent information regarding the company prior to moving forward. That information is limited compared to information other people might possess. For example if you were the CEO of that company you would be in a much better position to analyze the true value of that stock. In doesn’t matter if you’re a stock analyst or tipster, the more information we have to interpret, the more accurate that information is, the easier it is to come to the correct conclusions. In MLB a tipster can become a CEO verse an outsider looking in. He can become armed with the same knowledge as scouts, GM’s, coaches, and team owners. The development of Sabarmetrics by Bill James, further outlined in the book/movie Moneyball has made that all possible.

In baseball, the market is not established by sabermetrics. Instead the market is established with traditional statistics.  In baseball not all stat lines are created equal. You can take 50 pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 and I will show you 50 pitchers who arrived at the number in entirely different ways. Some of the ways virtually guarantee that performance won’t continue, some of them virtually guarantee that it will. The odds rarely reflect how a player arrived at the statistics they have. The market uses the same things people use when analyzing stocks, but as a strong MLB tipster, you can put yourself in the position of having a CEO’s knowledge without having to worry about insider trading.

If you want to get into the American market, maximize returns and your subscription costs, only one choice leads the way, major league baseball.

 

Best Regards,

Mike McClain

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