How much would you pay for a plain old cup of coffee at Starbucks?
- €20.00 (if you bought at half time during a Premier League game)
Unless you’re particularly desperate, most people will choose the first option as we’re all pretty clear on how much we value a cup of coffee. We all have a cut-off point when the coffee becomes too expensive and we look for another option or abstain.
When it comes to betting, defining value can be tricky as often it can come down to a matter of opinion (or personal statistics).
Yet, one of the biggest transitions a punter can make is when they stop thinking in terms of what will win and start thinking about value.
Every bet offered up by a bookmaker or on Betfair has a chance of winning as even 101.0 shots romp home every now and then. The trick is to be able to have your own price on something, that you can compare to the bookies.
Some take a different approach and say “price doesn’t matter as long as it wins”. However in the long run, this mentality will only result in long term losses.
So to help explain further, we have prepared a guide to pricing up the value of your bets.
How to Price Up a Bet
A good way to price up a bet is to convert the odds on offer into the implied probability of that bet winning. Implied probability is how often that bet is expected to win given average luck as a percentage.
To work this out take the number 1 and divide it by the decimal odds on offer. Then multiply this by 100 and voila! You have your implied probability figure.
For example Barcelona are priced at 2.50 to win the Champions Leaguein 2015
1 divided by 2.50 is 0.40
X 100 = 40.0%.
So a bet priced at 2.50 should win roughly 40% of the time. Or expressed another way, the bookies think Barcelona will win4 times out of 10.
Percentage Chance of Winning
The second part of value is to come up with your prediction of its chances of winning. Going back to our Barcelona bet, if we think there is an actual chance of him winning greater than 40%, then we have a value bet.
Let’s say you watched all the Champions League games and think Barcelona are closer to being a 60% chance.
To convert 60% back into odds, you divide 100 by 60 = 1.67.
So with our Barcelona bet, we are betting on what I think should be a 1.67 shot and getting odds of 2.50. It doesn’t mean it will win, but take hundreds bets like that and you will make money.
Naturally this assumes your estimation is more accurate than the bookmakers which is easier said than done.
Bet Advisor Value Bets
Bet Advisor’s expert tipsters short cut your value research to provide you with long term profits. The huge advantage that BetAdvisor offers is that our tipsters will be doing this hard work for you. The important thing is to think about a tip not as a winner, but as a small chunk of value that should turn into profit over time.