Group races 2
There are many relevant weighting factors that need to be considered when betting on group races, the list below is not exclusive and is in no particular order but they may be of use when drawing up conclusions.
There is an old saying that if you fail to prepare then be prepared to fail. This is very true when trying to get an equine athlete to perform to the best of its ability against the best horses of its generation on the day of question.
Preparation is key and not just in pre-training before the event but how the races contested previously are mapped out accordingly. So, for example, running in a race that is too close before the main event could see a horse not being able to perform on its true merits, likewise, a lengthy break between races could be detrimental as well.
These situations, of course, depend on the type of horse as some may need a reasonable break between races whilst others will not. There are various clues when interpreting a horses form. This is indicated by the number of days between races also known as DSR (Days Since Run). So, for example, a horse that has shown an aptitude to performing well after a break will be reflected by the number of days since it last ran.
Horses that have already proven their ability at the level they are due to contest will get marks for not having to prove themselves in this grade again.
However, they may have to prove themselves against different opposition for the first time or over the distance whilst ground conditions are also another important factor to consider as they may not have encountered before or if so not against the opposition they are now facing.
As you can see there are many imponderables, questions that need answering based on a calculated assessment of risk to reward for taking that chance at the prevailing odds on offer.
Research has shown that a fair amount of these races are won by the bigger training establishments as a collective. They tend to train the best horses who are usually bred for the job.
I would consider monitoring the key trials, note how those races were run and scrutinize the race from a form perspective, ie; has the race been well advertised since? or does it look suspect with houses either in behind or in front proving disappointing subsequently or previously as the case may turn out. You then need to make a correlation from the odds available to decide if there is a value bet to be made.
The more horses that you consider to have a chance in any given race, then the bigger the odds you will want to take that chance, that is one of the fundamental rules of betting and certainly applies in group races.
There are many imponderables to consider