- Goal Line Betting
- What does under 2.5 goals mean
- Goal Line Betting & Refunds
An ever popular betting medium is betting on the number of goals in a game. In certain matches it makes sense to focus on this than the result. For example at certain times of the season, for example in a tight relegation dog fight, the result could go either way, but goals (or lack of) could be a better focus for your betting.
For example, you might bet on there being ‘Over 2.5 goals’ in Manchester United v Chelsea at 1.95, which means you win if there are three goals or more, regardless of who wins the match. It could be 3-0, 1-2 or 2-2 and you would still win.
Alternatively, you could be on there being ‘Under 2.5 goals’ in Manchester United v Chelsea at 1.95, which means you win if there are two goals or less, regardless of who wins. It could be 1-0, 0-0 or 0-2 and your bet would win.
The main goals market you will most likely be using will be Over/Under 2.5 goals. This sometimes confuses people who are new to football betting as there is obviously no such thing as half a goal!
How Does Over/ Under 2.5 Goal Betting Work?
In over/ under betting, bookmakers commonly use a “half” a goal so they can offer odds on a single “line”. In reality with 2.5 goals betting, you are betting on there being over 2 goals or under 3 goals. By referring to 2.5, you have everything on a single line as three is above 2.5 and 2 is below 2.5.
If you back ‘over’, then you need three goals to win, if you back ‘under’, then you want no more than two goals.
2.5 goals isn’t the only option available to you for betting on the goals market. If we look at the odds comparison for the Evertonv Wigan game, we can see a whole range of goal lines:
The majority of bookmakers (43) are pricing up the over/ under 2.5 goals line, but there are also a number at +1.5, +3.5 etc and some offering +2.25.
These other goal lines are relatively easy to understand as follows:
- Over/ Under 0.5 goals means you want either 1 goal or more (over) or no goals at all (under).
- Over/ Under 1.5 goals means you want either 2 goals or more (over) or 1 goal or less (under).
- Over/ Under 3.5 goals means you want either 4 goals or more (over) or 3 goal or less (under).
By far the most popular goal lines for betting are over 2.5 goals and over 3.5 goals. More people prefer to back ‘over goals’ than ‘under goals’, even though there is no logic to this, it must be psychologically more appealing to want to cheer on goals in a game!
As well as offering various ‘half ball’ lines for goal betting such as Over 2.5 goals and Over 3.5 goals, bookmakers also offer what is known as ‘full ball’ or ‘one the line’ markets.
Examples of these include:
- Over 2.0 goals
- Over 4.0 goals
- Under 3.0 goals
The difference here is that you get your money back if the game finishes exactly on the line. The downside is that lower odds are on offer. Here are some examples:
- If you bet on over 3.0 goals and the game finishes 2-1, you will receive a refund.
- If you bet on over 3.0 goals and the game finishes 3-1, you win.
- If you bet on over 3.0 goals and the game finishes 2-0, you lose.
- If you bet on under 3.0 goals and the game finishes 3-0, you will receive a refund.
- If you bet on under 3.0 goals and the game finishes 2-0, you win.
- If you bet on under 3.0 goals and the game finishes 3-1, you lose.
The advantage of this ‘full goal’ betting is that you can get better odds than straight forward over 2.5 goal betting, but avoid the frustration of falling one goal short of your target. Many punters find this psychologically reassuring.
The most complicated form of goal line betting is the ‘quarter ball’ line. The best way to understand this form of betting is to think of it as two half bets.
- Over 2.75 goals
- Over 2.25 goals
The over 2.75 goals bet is best seen as half an over 2.5 goals bet and half and over 3.0 goals bet. If the score is 2-1, you win with the over 2.5 goals part, but only get a refund with the over 3.0 goals part. The advantage of this sort of bet is that you get slightly better odds than a straight over 2.5 goal bet, with some insurance if you don’t exceed three goals.
The over 2.25 goals bet is best seen as half an over 2.5 goals bet and half an over 2.0 goals bet. If the score is 2-0, you lose with the over 2.5 goals part, but get a refund with the over 2.0 goals part. The advantage of this sort of bet is that you get slightly better odds than betting on over 1.5 goals and slightly better odds than betting on over 2.00 goals, with some insurance if you finish exactly on your target.
To help you make sense of all the options, here’s a summary of all the main Over/ Under goal options
To help your goal betting, here goal betting stats from across the top leagues in Europe:
- 53% of Premier League games finish with over 2.5 goals (Odds equivalent of 1.88). This trend has increased in recent years.
- 30% of Premier League games finish with over 3.5 goals (odds equivalent of 3.29)
- Premier League: When a top six team plays at home, the over 2.5 goal percentage increases to 58% (odds equivalent of 1.74), but when they play at away, the over 2.5 goal percentage is just 53% (1.88).
- Premier League: Top six v top six clashes are no more likely than average to finish with over 2.5 goals (53%), but are less likely to finish over 3.5 goals (25% of games).
- Premier League: Bottom six v bottom six clashes are no more likely to finish over 2.5 goals (53%), but are slightly more likely to finish over 3.5 goals (31%).
- France is one of the lowest scoring leagues in Europe, with just 44% of matches finishing over 2.5 goals (odds equivalent of 2.29).
- Germany is the highest scoring league as teams are more likely to push for a result rather than sit back and defend a lead. 56% of games finish over 2.5 goals (odds equivalent of 1.77) and 34% of matches finish over 3.5 goals (odds equivalent of 2.91)
This article has been prepared with the assistance of SecretBettingClub.com