I believe that in betting, it’s all about who has the best information. That’s why I believe that those who focus on their local markets have an important advantage. E.g. there are numerous cases where the books make obvious mistakes in Greece that hit my eye at once. I call these “mistake bets”.
Next, are the “normal bets” based on exhaustive analysis. The way I work is: After reading all news, watching previous games, read statistics and all these stuff, I write analysis for all the matches. Then I read them all again and pick the matches that have the most convincing analysis.
Outside one’s country, I would recommend using a tipster and that’s what I am doing too, even if it’s just software. Someone could ask: “Why trust a machine?” Because it can look at thousands of data and extract knowledge from it. So after watching this model produce good results in the past 3 seasons, I trusted it to do the same in the current season too. As it turned out in the majority of cases (Italy, Scotland, Germany, France) it did.
Lately I have been working on expanding my model towards the Scandinavian market. The most promising is Norway. Tested on the past 3 seasons it produced a total yield of 20.97% in 271 matches. 27.4% in 2010, 14.5% in 2011 and 24.2% in 2012. These numbers DO NOT, in any way, guarantee that this season will yield similar results. But I believe that the sample size of 271 matches in a 3 year period is a good sign. Apparently, there has to be a no-bet period until it reaches the 9th matchday, so that there’s enough data. This will be in mid-May.
So I have decided to follow the Norwegian 1st division for the summer. As for Sweden, there is still a question-mark on it and a little further work to be done.