Carlisle Racecourse is a stiff right-handed track with some undulations.
The course runs both flat and Jump meetings from February to November and usually around three evening meetings per season.
The course represents a very stiff test for the thoroughbred, will various inclines on route to the winning post, so fitness and stamina are key components required to win here, as well of course ability.
It’s no surprise to note that the vast majority of winners at the track recorded their last win previously at this venue, with 57 wins recorded from 504 runners, representing about 11% in ratio terms.
Horses who recorded their last win before coming here at tracks such as Beverley and Leicester shows a profit to level stakes at SP, see list below.
Last race win at Beverley before racing here.
Bets: 344 Wins: 44 strike rate: 12.97 % P/L +2.95 (SP)
Last race win at Leicester before racing here.
Bets: 75 Wins: 14 strike rate: 18.67 % P/L +15.83 (SP)
These results are no surprise as both courses are right handed and stiff in nature, so there are some similar course traits to Carlisle.
Given that the profits are based on SP it is very likely more could have been achieved through fixed odds betting.
Punters may say to follow Sir Michael Stoute runners at the course, with a healthy and impressive 52.94% win strike rate but the reality his runners tend to go far too short in the market to make it beneficial, in fact betting all his runners blind to SP would have seen a loss of -2.24 recorded to level stakes despite winning more than 50 percent of the time.
This is another example of how it’s not the percentage of winners you get that’s important but the median (average) odds you get in relation to those percentage of winners.
There are of course some trainers who are less established than Sir Michael Stoute which means their runners can on occasions offer more value in the betting ring.
Here below, is a sample of a few that are worth considering when they have runners at the track in specific circumstances.
K.Burke 2YO non-handicap races
Bets: 48 Wins: 15 strike rate: 31.25 % P/L +82.20 (SP)
N.Duffield 2YO non-handicap races
Bets: 59 Wins: 12 strike rate: 20.34 % P/L +53.61 (SP)
K.Dalgliesh 3YO+ Handicap races
Bets: 126 Wins: 24 strike rate: 19.05% P/L +46.62 (SP)