We all know the feeling when we’re sitting once again thinking that odds on the favourite are way too low – that there’s not a chance in hell that there’s any value in betting Real Madrid vs. Recreativo at odds 1,11. But we couldn’t be more wrong.
Just have a look at the numbers from the 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 seasons. If you would have bet on all of Real Madrids games at level stakes you would have made a +8% yield. Have a look at the strike rate on a team like Real Madrid before arguing that a +8% yield over 3 years isn’t that much. The strike rate were 74% which means it’s the same money you invest again and again so the actual profit are much much higher.
What about Barcelona then? Barcelona must have been at least as big favourite those years and since Real Madrid was profitable Barcelona must have been the opposite. But No. Barcelona would have generated a +7% yield if you had placed a bet on each of their games. And an even higher strike rate (78%) here so an even higher actual profit here as well.
Coincidence? I don’t think so. Cross the boarder into Portugal and do the same with FC Porto and you’ll have a +13% yield.
If in doubt have a look yourself. Wait until all the major leagues are rolling and have a look at all the top teams over a weekend. I’ll bet you that you’ll see a profit in the long run just by backing those teams.
It might not be as exciting as predicting an away win at odds of 4,25, but who cares? Aren’t we in it for the money? And why not do both?