Ayr Racecourse is a left-handed galloping track but generally flat in nature. They hold at least one race meeting every month if not more and they are dual purpose racecourse accommodating both Flat and Jump Racing at various times of the year.
Thier highlight meeting on the Flat takes place in or around the third week of September every season over three days, culminating with the Ayr Gold Cup, it’s premier event on the final day of the festival.
Northern based trainers tend to usually be the focus of many punters but it sometimes pays to look at it from an opposing angle.
Trainers such as Luca Cumani, Jeremy Noseda, Sir Mark Prescott are always worth noting when sending runners to contest a handicap at the North-East track, especially as they don’t on a regular basis.
Jim Goldie has more handicap runners than anyone else with 1285 participants and counting, his nearest pursuer is Linda Perratt with 753 horses contesting a handicap. However, neither of them are profitable over time to follow in this sphere at the venue, a combined loss of 239.92 euros to a level stake of one euro per bet is a testament from those findings.
Furthermore, if you backed both trainers set of runners in a handicap at the price of 5.0 or below and up to including 2.0 then you will have lost 36.50 Euros from a one Euro stake per bet from 249 bets despite a win strike rate of 21.29 percent being achieved.
The above example is an illustration of how important it is to find value bets to determine how your overall profit margins are achieved or not as the case maybe and not to focus just on the strike rate unless it’s specifically rated to a set price or price “range”.
What is also important when analysing statistical data is how you interpret them, some of which may appear at first glance to be obvious, but it sometimes becomes more meaningful when you break up the stats more appropriately to get another picture.
For example at the time of writing, if we backed all of Kevin Ryan runners in handicaps at Ayr your return would be as follows; 325 bets, 31 winners, 9.54% strike rate P/L-29.12 per Euro per bet.
So at the initial point of observation, could see many people viewing this set of circumstances as a negative aspect.
However, if we decided to break down the stats in more detail by age group, for example in nursery races which is basically a handicap for two years only then we would get the following results below.
Kevin Ryans record in two-year-old Nurseries; 39bets, 9 winners, 25.71% strike rate, P/L +35.13 per Euro per bet.
This gives you a basic idea of the importance of doing your homework thoroughly if you wish to become more successful in your betting overtime.