Avoiding Accumulators

An accumulator is a single bet that combines four or more options in a single wager (two or three options are in essence the same but are referred to as ‘doubles’ or ‘trebles’). The bet is only won, of course, if all of those outcomes occur. Most of us have bet in this way before, usually just to make the weekend’s matches a little more exciting. For fun, there is nothing wrong with placing an accumulator bet, but do so in the knowledge that a professional punter would almost never bet in this way, and for the very good reason that it equates to more or less throwing your money away.

The temptation

Often the big enticement of accumulators is that you can select a combination of nice, comfortable home ‘bankers,’ add them together and profit from the lengthened odds which offer a tasty return. Easy money, isn’t it? Well, here is an example of such an accumulator bet from the weekend just past, selecting home wins for strong home teams at low odds, meaning in theory, the likeliest returns.

Manchester City 1.25, Draw 7.00, Middlesbrough 15.00

Liverpool 1.30, Draw 6.20, Watford 13.00

Real Madrid 1.08, Draw 12.00. Leganes 34.00

Bayern Munich 1.17, Draw 7.50, Hoffenheim 13.00

Combined odds on 4 x home win = 2.05

Each one of those four teams, with the exception of Liverpool in third, were top of their respective leagues before the match in question, and had put in dominant displays at home in recent weeks. Individually the odds were not enticing as they offered very little by way of return. However, by adding the games together in the form of a multi-bet accumulator, available with all bookmakers, better odds could be achieved.

Looking at the four games above, the combined odds on four home wins was 2.05. The attraction of an accumulator bet is that, in comparison to a single bet of the same odds, the outcome appears more likely. However, statistically this is obviously not the case. This is a large danger sign because something that appears to be more likely but isn’t will only exist to the benefit of the bookmaker and to the disadvantage of the punter, if he or she does not heed the warning.

The outcome

Looking back at the games above, both Manchester City and Bayern Munich surprisingly failed to win their respective matches. Yet a closer look would reveal that is was only a two weeks ago that Manchester City failed to win a home game against Southampton in which the hosts were short odds favourites, while it was little over a month ago Bayern similarly failed to beat Cologne at the Allianz Area ( only a sequence of two home matches ago for the German giants). Don’t kick yourself if you didn’t know that, but that is why successful tipsters pride themselves on the research they conduct before making a selection. Interestingly, the correct prediction of a draw in either of those games would have guaranteed returns of a minimum 7.00, but of course singling out that one draw is much more difficult, and that again is where tried and trusted tipsters are worth their weight in gold.

The solution

Tipsters at Betadvisor.com never deal in anything other than single bets, which is a wise strategy and one which no professional tipper or punter would deviate from. Using a tipster service which offers finely-researched tips using a variety of odds and bet types is an excellent option. If you insist on using the accumulator, do so only by also placing multiple bets on a combination of the separate outcomes in order to cover any single loss on the accumulator (a betting style which has a variety of names dependent on the number of outcomes on the original accumulator), but then of course the stake must be increased. The obvious solution is that, unless it is a small stake placed for purposes of fun, avoid accumulators at all costs. After all, there is a reason why most accumulators fail due to one apparent rogue result…it’s called probability.

Steve Paget

 

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