Assessing runners in class four handicap turf races.
Class four handicap races on turf tend to contain horses of moderate ability although it not rare for horses to make the necessary improvement to go through the handicap ranks.
When turf season is in full swing you will virtually find at least one race of this nature every day.
There are only two race bands 66-80, and 71-85. Both bands carry a difference of 14lb meaning horses have to be rated within 14lb of each other to compete against one another.
The vast majority of class four handicap races on turf hold prize money between £4000 to £8000, so similar to class three events in terms of the total allocated funds for the majority of races in this grade but there are a few races where the prize money has exceeded £17,000, there were two of these races last year.
The current statistics show that horses dropping in class from their last run performed no better than those going up in class, both hovering at a win strike rate of around 11%. One area where there was a noticeable difference was horses that were dropping 4 classes below from its last run where the win strike rate hovers at around 14%.
How is this possible, well, for example, a horse may have run in a group three race, finished down the field and the handicapper has assigned a rating of 84 which would allow it to contest a class four handicap.
Horses that have managed to finish placed, ie; first three in one of its last three races have the best win strike rate when running in this grade of race, something bearing in mind when placing a bet.
Here is a small list of trainers that tend to do well in these type of events.
Please note records are based on a level staking plan to one Euro or Sterling per bet at SP (Industry prices).
Trainer: E Vaughan
Bets: 103 Wins: 22 Strike rate: 21% P/L +85.00
Trainer: M Appleby
Bets: 352 Wins: 48 Strike rate: 14% P/L +91.76
Trainer: E Johnson Houghton
Bets: 349 Wins: 47 Strike rate: 13% P/L +78.80
Trainer: I Mohammed
Bets: 64 Wins: 14 Strike rate: 22% P/L +57.38