The Goal Market

The Goal Market

Some of the best betting value that can be found is in the goals market. The risk of these markets is often considerably less as you aren’t sticking your neck out on one particular team doing something, as you are covering more angles by betting on goals markets as opposed to 1×2 or Asian Handicap– ultimately, you have more chances to win.

Backing the goals has grown in popularity season by season recently, and if you understand them well enough and apply your knowledge to a specific league, goals markets can often be priced a little high and are there to be taken advantage of if you know what to look for. A big reason for the growing popularity of the goals market amongst your average punter is possibly down to the lack of research that is actually required. Other than checking the obvious historical trends, the outcomes commonly seem fairly obvious, although the odds do often put pay to a high number of potential bets.

In many South American games where two poor teams meet for example, you’ll do pretty well to get any kind of respectable odds when betting on Under 2.5 goals. For your average Barca v Real Madrid fixture, you’d have to be looking at Over 3.00 at least before you get some odds worth backing. If you can find the odds however, it’s not far off 50/50 shot on whether you win or lose. Given that the Premier League statistics in the last 12+ years suggest that Over/Under has been split close to 50% in all 13 seasons, it is clearly a potentially profitable market if you can find a slight edge over the bookmaker and their prices.

A bet Over 2.5 goals simply requires 3 or more goals in a 90 minute match or less than three if you back the Under 2.5 option. It’s straight forward but popular, because as previously mentioned, the reasoning behind betting the market can be very minimal but still prove to be successful.

If at a glance you notice a team’s last 7 games have gone Over at home, and they’re hosting a team who typically see low scoring games, you should take a look at the odds, as the bookies aren’t always right. In this instance, it can often be a good idea to go with the trends shown by the home side, who will typically enforce their style of play more easily than the away side; back them to do what they always do on their ground and score goals. Often you’ll get similar odds between 1.8-2.0 for the Over and the Under in the same game, and despite the bookmaker’s margins, you can win enough to make a profit over time.

One of the things to keep in mind for this market is the motivation of a side. Motivation has a bearing on the outcome of every single sporting event around the world. In a league where everyone is capable of producing, the key to success can often be finding a constant source of motivation and consistency. A couple of examples of motivation can be like the above example. If a team has managed to score 2 or more goals in 7 consecutive home games, regardless of whether or not the away side are an organised side that score/concede few, you’d want to consider backing the momentum and motivation and back the home side to keep their goal scoring form.

A damaging blow to motivation can be hectic fixture lists. If you know a team is going to be playing an important Champions League game on Tuesday, but they’re hosting a team where they should win comfortably, the motivation will never be the same. The team may steam in to a 2-0 lead in the first half, but in that situation you’ll often see the key players come off and 2-0 could easily be the full time score line. That’s just another factor to consider in a pretty long list.

A downside to betting in goal markets is that the prices and previous result history could easily mislead you. It’s best to delve a little deeper in to previous results and take the context of these games in to consideration. A low scoring 1-0 could’ve had a missed penalty along with a host of clear cut chances that on another day could’ve seen a 3-3 thriller. Don’t go on results alone – do your research.

Going with what seems so obvious on paper is a common mistake, but if you delve a little deeper and play the markets wise enough, going against the stats isn’t always such a bad idea, and can also provide a form of good value – as the public may over compensate on a previous performance thus pushing the price of the opposite bet upwards.

A nearly as popular but arguably tougher market to call is the both teams to score market. Something that can be put to good use in leagues that are renowned for the unpredictability of defences, or even in lower divisions where the defences of even the top sides aren’t quite up to scratch.

Backing both teams to score is very simple – it does what it says on the tin – you’re betting on both teams to score a goal in a 90 minute match.

It only takes a second to score a goal and in a league with as much quality as the Premier League, you can’t write off the lower teams against the bigger teams, because these days it’s likely most teams will score against most teams in the Premier League, leaving their with value to be found in the both teams to score market.

Backing the goals markets can be a very simple but effective way of betting, and it doesn’t always take a lot of research. If you choose to look deeper however, there’s some real outsider value to be found.